Election 2022

The opposition might have taken a slight lead in polls

It may not even matter in a hugely unfair election system and if Orbán’s men will cheat next year.

Have you noticed how partisan pollsters want to prove that their party is already winning?

They could be doing the opposite, trying to convince their voters that their party needs their vote because they are not leading – but no. Pollsters have apparently concluded that a voter needs to see his party leading in order to make him go to vote. Wonder what that says about voters?

And I also wonder if it is true – or just one of those unchecked assumptions entire industries and generations can follow and never test.

Anyway, partisan pollsters are not a news item anymore. If they find that their candidate is not leading I will let you know. Until that we have Závecz Research. And this week they measured a slight lead for the united opposition. Still within the margin of error, very much so, but it is a change.

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On the other hand, Orbán held a talk to his tribe and announced that they are so comfortably leading in the polls that it is very dangerous. It might induce complacency or something, he hasn’t specified, but it can be a convenient scapegoat in case he can’t massage a supermajority out of the elections next year: voter complacency.

Which is not very likely as the tight contests has already triggered a high intended participation rate. But don’t worry. We have seen in 2018 that all-time record participation rate can be reduced – even after the polls close. And not just in Russia.

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