Election 2022

Election outcomes 2/4 – A simple majority for Orbán

If Hungary is still governable by a simple majority – it has to be Orbán’s.

A simple majority for Orbán is not an unlikely scenario.

0.5% nationwide lead means 10% more mandates for Orbán in parliament

It would rob Orbán of his most potent domestic tool – his voting machine – but only temporarily, given the unconditional support he can expect from the leaders of independent institutions.

By putting loyalists atop of the remaining independent institutions and appointing them for oddly long periods of time, Orbán has placed constitutional landmines in the path of any potential successor. He had also increased the realm of laws that require a supermajority to pass – accelerating an ailment that has plagued legislation since 1989.

He had also outsourced all the economic might of the state into loyalist asset management vehicles to do as they please with them, including universities, theatres and major cultural institutions whose state support is still mandated by law nonetheless. The new, politically fattened oligarchy is also expected to obstruct any government that is not Orbán’s and they now control entire economic sectors, telecommunication, utilities and big chunks of banking and retail.

Would the opposition contest the results?

After 2018 it is very likely. Especially since a simple majority is so easy to achieve by Orbán: a fraction of a percentage in nationwide support can give him a comfortable majority. It is no wonder so many civilians demand the full presence of international observers and the opposition and civilians are furiously recruiting delegates into the voting stations. In 2018 everyone trusted the system so much they didn’t delegate anyone into 75% of voting stations.

But even if the opposition manages to monitor the counting of the ballots, there will be other ways of cheating by then. Many of those have been written into the election law or stem from the imbalance between campaign resources (Fidesz’ campaign budget indistinguishable from that of the government), the media imbalance, and new and wild ways to create and facilitate the voting of over a million new Hungarian citizens in the surrounding countries. To name just a few.

The opposition would protest in the streets but those protests would be non-violent. Such protests regularly fail to achieve anything as they are easily ignored by the regime.

The loss of his mighty two-third would also mean that Orbán’s ego abroad would be subdued. He could still navigate with the help of breakaway MPs from the opposition that is easily divided. Having a supermajority has been his favorite talking point in Brussels and beyond, blaming all his policies on the people’s supposed will and rejecting criticism on that basis.

The real question is how he would handle the inevitable economic downturn and whether he could conceal it or blame it on someone else.

Election outcomes 1/4 – Supermajority for Orbán

Election outcomes 2/4 – A simple majority for Orbán

Election outcomes 3/4 – Opposition alliance wins by a simple majority

Election outcomes 4/4 – Opposition alliance gets a supermajority

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