Der Untergang

Orbán’s allies decimated – The list

A running list of the current state of the global alliance of aspiring dictators. Additions appreciated.

OUT (currently in opposition or ousted/arrested):

  • Viktor Yanukovych – Ukraine
  • Silvio Berlusconi – Italy
  • Hosni Mubarak – Egypt
  • Nikola Gruevski – North Macedonia (currently hiding from prison sentence in Hungary)
  • Benjamin Netanyahu – Israel
  • Heinz-Christian Strache (former Vice-Chancellor, Austria)
  • Donald Trump – United States (UPDATE: Trump repeatedly reassured Orbán of his support, even after the Ukraine war started. But the Republican Party found Orbán too toxic to organize their CPAC in Budapest in March – before the Hungarian elections.)
  • Nursultan Nazarbayev – Kazahstan (a statement had to be made that he is not hiding in Hungary)
  • Nicolas Sarkozy – France
  • Angela Merkel – Germany (probably the deepest blow for Orbán, worse than Trump’s defeat)
  • Sebastian Kurz – Austria (Although he may be an even more formidable ally in his new position)
  • Andrej Babiš – Czech Republic
  • Boyko Borissov – Bulgaria (UPDATE: detained for corrupt spending of EU funds in March 2022)

IN TROUBLE / FACING ELECTIONS

  • Alexander Lukashenko – Belarus
  • Recep Tayyip Erdoğan – Turkey (self-inflicted superinflation – elections only in 2023)
  • Rodrigo Duterte – Philippines (May 2022)
  • Jair Messias Bolsonaro – Brazil (October 2022)
  • Aleksandar Vučić – Serbia (April 2022)
  • Janez Janša – Slovenia (April 2022) (UPDATE: Janša took the opposite side in the Ukraine war than Orbán) 

FIRMLY IN POWER (Either because elections don’t matter or because they are in a safe distance)

  • Vladimir Putin – Russia (UPDATE: started a disastrous war that is tragic for his own country – as well as the one he attacked. Signs of delusional thinking appear that will weaken him and Russia – if it was ever strong.)
  • Xi Jinping – China
  • Jarosław Kaczyński – Poland (parliamentary elections only in 2023) UDPATE March 2022: The Polish government took the opposite side from Orbán in the Ukraine war and relations cooled. They also had their share of the EU reconstruction fund released, despite the threat of the rule of law procedure and thus may have made their peace with the EU – leaving Orbán without a mutual-veto buddy to block decisions any further.

Others (politicians and other allies)

  • Matteo Salvini – Italy (UPDATE: He tried to backpedal from his Putinism due to the Ukraine war)
  • Marine Le Pen – France (UPDATE: She tried to backpedal from his Putinism due to the Ukraine war, but she also received 10.6 million euros in campaign funding through a Hungarian commercial bank close to Orbán)
  • Éric Zemmour – France (UPDATE: He tried to backpedal from his Putinism due to the Ukraine war)
  • Steve Bannon – US
  • Geert Wilders – Netherlands

With more members dropping out of power the network effect gets weaker – at some point it begins to work in the opposite direction, as a negative spiral rather than an asset.

UPDATE: Orbán has lost many allies the moment Putin invaded Ukraine. Many western European Putin puppets tried to backpedal from their Putinism – like the infamous visit of the Polish border by Salvini that backfired spectacularly. It remains to be seen whether their on-the-surface change of heart will actually translate into the reconsideration of a political alliance with Orbán, who remained defiant to anti-Putinism and currently is campaigning for reelection under the flag of peace and neutrality (as if we were Switzerland or something). Orbán’s international game regarding his defense of Putin’s interests is even less transparent. The dropping of the rule of law procedure against Hungary and Poland might have been a result of his threatening to veto EU sanctions (yet again), but Poland appears to have made their deal with the EU and they were on their side of the Atlantic alliance from day one. Orbán merely used the situation for personal gains again but refused to denounce Putin.

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