46.5% – 47% for the opposition vs Orbán means 90 vs 108 mandates, respectively.
According to the calculations of taktikaiszavazas.hu, a website encouraging strategic voting as the only chance to challenge Orbán, the January nationwide poll data for Orbán vs the united opposition are 47% – 46.5%.
It would result in a ten percent lead or Orbán in parliament – due to the distorting nature of Orbán’s very own election law.
According to another calculation, the opposition should beat Orbán by 2-5% nationwide in order to just break even in terms of mandates.
The cause is not just gerrymandering, but the hugely punitive electoral law for the loser, where even the compensatory votes go to the winner, to name just one, odd thing.