46.5% – 47% for the opposition vs Orbán means 90 vs 108 mandates, respectively.
In this environment it may look foolish to even consider the possibility of a supermajority for the opposition – but we will do it nonetheless. Thinking has never hurt anyone.
This is the scenario many are hoping for. But would Orbán hand over power?
If Hungary is still governable by a simple majority – it has to be Orbán’s.
The April 2022 election can only have four possible outcomes. Yet another constitutional supermajority for Orbán A simple majority for Orbán A simple majority for the united opposition A supermajority for the united opposition
Orbán’s system is not just a function of a persisting supermajority – it is enshrined in his very own Basic Law. Can a new government change it without a constitutional supermajority?
As part of the election-year giveaway, Orbán personally announced yet another gift to the people: that they can spend their non-cash vouchers on more than just domestic hotels and restaurants. They can even buy food!
In December 2021 a government spokesman reassured us in an interview that Orbán would hand over power to the opposition if they won. In other words, we have come to the point where it has to be said.
What could possibly go wrong?
Orbán is resorting to something he had never done before.